If you've followed the Mountain West Conference much the past few years, you know the COnference's favorite two letters are "co". Virtually each week, just like parents who adamantly maintain they won't select a favorite child, the MWC honors co-players of the week. They even took it to an extreme last basketball season when Lee Cummard and J.R. Giddens shared the "Co-player of the Year" award. And I thought that in sports, ties are like kissing your sister. (By the way, this topic could also be applied to soccer, but we'll save that for another day, like the MWC soccer predictions.)
So it was tempting to select "Co-champions" for the conference in making my predictions. After all, that might match the conference's results later today. And I just can't wait to see who the "Co-special teams players of the year" will be.
Instead, I will rank the teams 1-9. The team at the top may seem a little familiar, given my biases. Hope springs eternal at this time of year, and I even had BYU winning the conference in 2002 - 2004. This year, however, many of the national pundits (and more than likely the conference media itself) agree with me. We'll see how the rest of the conference shakes down.
1. BYU Cougars (12-0, 8-0) - How can you pick against any team that has completed a full round of home and away games against the entire conference without losing? Under Bronco, BYU is 11-1 against MWC teams on the road and 10-2 at home (with both losses coming in overtime). One of Bronco Mendenhall's great strengths has proven to be the ability to win the games he should (other than at SDSU in 2005). That's why I expect BYU to breeze through conference games until meeting the Utes on November 22. By that point, BYU's relatively inexperienced defense (as cited by many experts as the team's weakness) will have had a year together. And the offense will have had two years together. Despite the Utes always going all out to beat BYU, I expect the game to be over BEFORE the last play of the game. But it will still be close. In nonconference games, I think Washington poses the only real threat, and I think BYU ekes out a win there.
2. Utah Utes (9-3, 6-2) - Some have predicted that BYU and Utah will both be undefeated when they matchup against each other. That would be pretty cool as both would likely be in the Top 10. I never root for Utah to win, but if they keep winning, at least I'll have that possibility as a consolation prize to look forward to. In reality, I expect the Utes to lose at the Big House (as there is a rule that every writer MUST refer to Michigan Stadium as) and to lose at New Mexico. Utah always tends to drop at least one conference game they shouldn't and I think it will be the Lobos this year. However, other than BYU, I think they will win the remainder of their games assuming QB Brian Johnson remains healthy. If not, they could easily take a slide down the standings. By the way, one game I would absolutely LOVE to see the Utes lose is when they host Weber St. I'll finally get to cheer for Ron McBride!
3. New Mexico Lobos (8-4, 5-3) - I know that popular opinion views the MWC in three tiers, each with three teams. And TCU is generally considered the third team in the top tier. But I think New Mexico supplants them this year for three main reasons: 1) I think they will beat the Horned Frogs in the season opener in Albuquerque; 2) They have a better QB who is entering his 3rd year as a starter (Donovan Porterie); and 3) TCU's defense lost two great players (Chase Ortiz & Tommy Blake). By the way, how about New Mexico's home schedule which includes Utah, Arizona, and Texas A&M. That's quite a coup for getting teams to Albuquerque. The Lobos probably split those two BCS-non-conference games and lose three conference games. By the way, Rocky Long is now the Dean of MWC Coaches, having completed 10 seasons in New Mexico. (On a related note, Wyoming's Joe Glenn joins Rocky as the only other coach to have been coaching in the MWC longer than Bronco.)
4. TCU Horned Frogs (8-4, 5-3) - I expect TCU to lose to the three teams ahead of it and beat the rest of the conference. Their only non-conference loss will be to Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs are always a pretty tough team, but how good can a team in purple really be? Name one purple team that is good. The Minnesota Vikings have never won a Super Bowl. The Colorado Rockies are back to mediocrity after failing to win the World Series last year. The Jazz even changed their colors to avoid purple (and went to the NBA Finals the first two years after doing so). Neither the Lehi Pioneers or Tooele Buffaloes are Utah state high school powerhouses (although they do have two of the state's best nicknames). Bottom line: purple doesn't win.
5. Wyoming Cowboys (7-5, 4-4) - At first I was amazed and impressed when I saw that Wyoming has 7 home games this year. Having been in Laramie, I'm always surprised they get one visitor there, other than the 4 conference teams required to go each year. I can also see why Wyoming will never lead the nation in passing - impossible in 65 MPH winds. Anyway, after examining the schedule a little more closely, I'm not as impressed. The Cowboys' three non-conference home games are Ohio (the Bobcats, not the Buckeyes), North Dakota State, and Bowling Green. They should win those three, but get annihilated at Tennessee. Add in a .500 conference season, and Wyoming should be bowl eligible, meaning that a bowl whose revenue depends heavily on alcohol sales should be happy to invite the Cowboys.
6. Air Force Falcons (5-7, 3-5) - Air Force's main problem this season is a lack of experience at quarterback. As much as any team in the league, their success seems tied to the QB's experience. And 4-year starter Shawn Carney (it seemed more like about 8 years he started there) is gone, the Falcons will be breaking in a new QB. Since they now run less option, it may be an easier transition, but still will be tough to repeat last season's magical #2 finish in league. While Air Force is clearly out of the running for a conference championship, the Commander-in-Chief's trophy is probably just a good game against Navy away.
7. San Diego St. Aztecs (5-7, 2-6) - For me SDSU and UNLV are a toss up and since the Aztecs host the Rebels on the last day of the season, I'm going with SDSU here. It seems like Chuck Long should be a great coach, given his pedigree, but I'm yet to see very impressive results. While I think UNLV and Colorado State are their only conference wins, I see them going 3-1 out of conference, thanks to a steady diet of WAC and D-2 (or Football Championship Series, as they now prefer to be called) schools. The loss will be at Notre Dame.
8. UNLV Rebels (4-8, 2-6) - Another team with 7 home games, although that is not at all a surprise in Las Vegas. Since a former Ute is the coach of the Rebels (Mike Sanford), I kind of enjoy seeing them struggle. I don't see much of a change this year. Sanford is 6-29 through 3 seasons. His has to be the hottest seat among MWC coaches this year.
9. Colorado St. Rams (2-10, 1-7) - Any respect votes Sonny Lubick used to get are now gone. I expect the Rams to have a rough rebuilding season. They return 8 starters on offense, but their top returning QB has thrown for 91 yards. In his career. That's an average quarter for Max Hall. The Rams' top returning receiver isn't much ahead of his QB, he has 183 yards receiving. Between inexperience, a new coach and system, and a relatively tough schedule, I think Colorado St. has a tough year.
This scenario would produce five bowl-eligible teams. I expect BYU in a BCS Bowl (probably the Fiesta, although I'm rooting for a PAC-10 versus Big-10 National Championship with no other teams from their conferences BCS bowl-eligible, giving the Rose Bowl cause to seriously consider BYU), Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl, and New Mexico and TCU in their home stadium bowls. And Wyoming in the B-double E-double R-U-N Bowl.
So it was tempting to select "Co-champions" for the conference in making my predictions. After all, that might match the conference's results later today. And I just can't wait to see who the "Co-special teams players of the year" will be.
Instead, I will rank the teams 1-9. The team at the top may seem a little familiar, given my biases. Hope springs eternal at this time of year, and I even had BYU winning the conference in 2002 - 2004. This year, however, many of the national pundits (and more than likely the conference media itself) agree with me. We'll see how the rest of the conference shakes down.
1. BYU Cougars (12-0, 8-0) - How can you pick against any team that has completed a full round of home and away games against the entire conference without losing? Under Bronco, BYU is 11-1 against MWC teams on the road and 10-2 at home (with both losses coming in overtime). One of Bronco Mendenhall's great strengths has proven to be the ability to win the games he should (other than at SDSU in 2005). That's why I expect BYU to breeze through conference games until meeting the Utes on November 22. By that point, BYU's relatively inexperienced defense (as cited by many experts as the team's weakness) will have had a year together. And the offense will have had two years together. Despite the Utes always going all out to beat BYU, I expect the game to be over BEFORE the last play of the game. But it will still be close. In nonconference games, I think Washington poses the only real threat, and I think BYU ekes out a win there.
2. Utah Utes (9-3, 6-2) - Some have predicted that BYU and Utah will both be undefeated when they matchup against each other. That would be pretty cool as both would likely be in the Top 10. I never root for Utah to win, but if they keep winning, at least I'll have that possibility as a consolation prize to look forward to. In reality, I expect the Utes to lose at the Big House (as there is a rule that every writer MUST refer to Michigan Stadium as) and to lose at New Mexico. Utah always tends to drop at least one conference game they shouldn't and I think it will be the Lobos this year. However, other than BYU, I think they will win the remainder of their games assuming QB Brian Johnson remains healthy. If not, they could easily take a slide down the standings. By the way, one game I would absolutely LOVE to see the Utes lose is when they host Weber St. I'll finally get to cheer for Ron McBride!
3. New Mexico Lobos (8-4, 5-3) - I know that popular opinion views the MWC in three tiers, each with three teams. And TCU is generally considered the third team in the top tier. But I think New Mexico supplants them this year for three main reasons: 1) I think they will beat the Horned Frogs in the season opener in Albuquerque; 2) They have a better QB who is entering his 3rd year as a starter (Donovan Porterie); and 3) TCU's defense lost two great players (Chase Ortiz & Tommy Blake). By the way, how about New Mexico's home schedule which includes Utah, Arizona, and Texas A&M. That's quite a coup for getting teams to Albuquerque. The Lobos probably split those two BCS-non-conference games and lose three conference games. By the way, Rocky Long is now the Dean of MWC Coaches, having completed 10 seasons in New Mexico. (On a related note, Wyoming's Joe Glenn joins Rocky as the only other coach to have been coaching in the MWC longer than Bronco.)
4. TCU Horned Frogs (8-4, 5-3) - I expect TCU to lose to the three teams ahead of it and beat the rest of the conference. Their only non-conference loss will be to Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs are always a pretty tough team, but how good can a team in purple really be? Name one purple team that is good. The Minnesota Vikings have never won a Super Bowl. The Colorado Rockies are back to mediocrity after failing to win the World Series last year. The Jazz even changed their colors to avoid purple (and went to the NBA Finals the first two years after doing so). Neither the Lehi Pioneers or Tooele Buffaloes are Utah state high school powerhouses (although they do have two of the state's best nicknames). Bottom line: purple doesn't win.
5. Wyoming Cowboys (7-5, 4-4) - At first I was amazed and impressed when I saw that Wyoming has 7 home games this year. Having been in Laramie, I'm always surprised they get one visitor there, other than the 4 conference teams required to go each year. I can also see why Wyoming will never lead the nation in passing - impossible in 65 MPH winds. Anyway, after examining the schedule a little more closely, I'm not as impressed. The Cowboys' three non-conference home games are Ohio (the Bobcats, not the Buckeyes), North Dakota State, and Bowling Green. They should win those three, but get annihilated at Tennessee. Add in a .500 conference season, and Wyoming should be bowl eligible, meaning that a bowl whose revenue depends heavily on alcohol sales should be happy to invite the Cowboys.
6. Air Force Falcons (5-7, 3-5) - Air Force's main problem this season is a lack of experience at quarterback. As much as any team in the league, their success seems tied to the QB's experience. And 4-year starter Shawn Carney (it seemed more like about 8 years he started there) is gone, the Falcons will be breaking in a new QB. Since they now run less option, it may be an easier transition, but still will be tough to repeat last season's magical #2 finish in league. While Air Force is clearly out of the running for a conference championship, the Commander-in-Chief's trophy is probably just a good game against Navy away.
7. San Diego St. Aztecs (5-7, 2-6) - For me SDSU and UNLV are a toss up and since the Aztecs host the Rebels on the last day of the season, I'm going with SDSU here. It seems like Chuck Long should be a great coach, given his pedigree, but I'm yet to see very impressive results. While I think UNLV and Colorado State are their only conference wins, I see them going 3-1 out of conference, thanks to a steady diet of WAC and D-2 (or Football Championship Series, as they now prefer to be called) schools. The loss will be at Notre Dame.
8. UNLV Rebels (4-8, 2-6) - Another team with 7 home games, although that is not at all a surprise in Las Vegas. Since a former Ute is the coach of the Rebels (Mike Sanford), I kind of enjoy seeing them struggle. I don't see much of a change this year. Sanford is 6-29 through 3 seasons. His has to be the hottest seat among MWC coaches this year.
9. Colorado St. Rams (2-10, 1-7) - Any respect votes Sonny Lubick used to get are now gone. I expect the Rams to have a rough rebuilding season. They return 8 starters on offense, but their top returning QB has thrown for 91 yards. In his career. That's an average quarter for Max Hall. The Rams' top returning receiver isn't much ahead of his QB, he has 183 yards receiving. Between inexperience, a new coach and system, and a relatively tough schedule, I think Colorado St. has a tough year.
This scenario would produce five bowl-eligible teams. I expect BYU in a BCS Bowl (probably the Fiesta, although I'm rooting for a PAC-10 versus Big-10 National Championship with no other teams from their conferences BCS bowl-eligible, giving the Rose Bowl cause to seriously consider BYU), Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl, and New Mexico and TCU in their home stadium bowls. And Wyoming in the B-double E-double R-U-N Bowl.
